Not a Postmortem: The Oracle Infrastructure Bubble

We're not here to conduct a postmortem. That would imply the patient is dead, and Oracle's stock is up 36% this month. Larry Ellison is occasionally the world's richest man. OpenAI just announced another $100 billion in infrastructure commitments. The patient is clearly thriving.

We're just here to discuss some interesting observations about knives and blood.

The Observation

Oracle announced a $300 billion deal with OpenAI requiring 4.5 gigawatts of power - enough electricity for Miami. Oracle's debt-to-equity ratio is 500%. The industry median is 0.2%. OpenAI generates $12 billion annually but committed $30 billion per year to Oracle alone.

The econometric models processed these numbers and output: "bullish."

That's not our observation though. Our observation is about a paper from Thinking Machines Lab.

The Knife

In September 2025, Mira Govil and her team published something inconvenient: they made transformer inference deterministic. Not "mostly deterministic" or "deterministic with caveats" - actually deterministic. Same inputs, same outputs, every time.

The entire industry had insisted this was impossible, or at least impractical. Turns out it just required fixing three operations to be batch-invariant. The performance penalty? About 40% after optimization.

They published the code. It works on Qwen models. Today.

The Blood

Here's what deterministic inference means:

• Debugging becomes possible - when something fails, you can reproduce it

• Testing becomes meaningful - tests actually test the same thing twice

• Automation becomes reliable - 100% success rate, not 80%

• Small models become sufficient - you don't need massive scale to average out randomness

If you can achieve 100% reliability with a 70B parameter model running deterministically on modest hardware, why do you need 5 gigawatts of infrastructure for stochastic models that work "most of the time"?

Not a Postmortem

We're not saying Oracle is dead. We're not saying the stochastic AI paradigm is dying. We're not saying the $500 billion Stargate project is building infrastructure for a future that won't exist.

We're just observing that:

1. Deterministic inference exists now

2. It works on standard hardware

3. It provides 100% reliability

4. The entire infrastructure bubble assumes it doesn't exist

The Coincidence

It's purely coincidental that:

• Oracle (the company) is betting everything on infrastructure for oracle models (stochastic AI)

• Based on projections from oracle models (econometric forecasts)

• While actual automation is being built with deterministic systems

• That don't need any of that infrastructure

We're sure there's no connection between these facts.

The Question Nobody's Asking

If Mira Govil can make transformers deterministic with a 40% performance penalty, and if deterministic systems provide 100% reliability versus 80% for stochastic systems, and if this runs on normal hardware instead of requiring nuclear reactors worth of power...

Then what exactly is Oracle building $300 billion worth of infrastructure for?

Not Our Conclusion

We don't have a conclusion. We're just pontificating on some interesting technical developments and some very large numbers.

If you want conclusions, read the attached essay: "What If: The Oracle is Dead"

But remember - we're not conducting a postmortem. The patient insists it's never been healthier. The econometric models agree. The stock is up.

We're just over here, looking at this knife from Thinking Machines Lab, noticing what appears to be blood, and wondering if anyone else finds the coincidence interesting.

Note: If anyone asks, Mira is the one who built the knife. We're just pointing at it.

Update: Someone asked us if we're suggesting that deterministic inference kills the value proposition of massive stochastic infrastructure. We're not suggesting anything. We're just noting that math doesn't require suggestions - it just requires calculation.

And the calculation is simple: 100% > 80%, $5 kilowatts < $5 gigawatts, deterministic > stochastic.

But again, not a postmortem. Oracle is clearly alive and raising money.

For now.